Consumers still feel inflation’s squeeze as holiday shopping season begins

The weekend after Thanksgiving is the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, beginning with Black Friday. Some retailers have been offering discounts throughout November in hopes of encouraging shoppers squeezed by inflation to open their wallets. We hear from people about their shopping plans this year, and John Yang speaks with retail analyst Dana Telsey for more.
John Yang:
This weekend is the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, beginning with Black Friday. By one estimate, online spending yesterday was more than 14 percent higher than last year, and in store purchases were up a modest 0.7 percent.
Some retailers have been offering discounts since shortly before Halloween in hopes of encouraging shoppers squeezed by inflation to open their wallets. We asked people to tell us about their shopping plans this year.
John Ferver, Sacramento, California:
My name is John Ferver and I live in Sacramento, California.
Sherry Sherry, Centerville, Virginia:
My name is Sherry and I`m in Centerville, Virginia.
Susen Pope, Wapaka, Wisconsin:
I am Susen Pope and I live at Wapaka, Wisconsin.
Sherry Sherry:
My main shopping usually starts in July.
Susen Pope:
I started my holiday shopping for this. Year last year.
John Ferver:
September and October, I always be thinking about what I shouldn`t be spending then so I can spend a little more around the holidays.
Susen Pope:
I don`t really budget for my gifts. It just works out in the end.
Sherry Sherry:
I usually have kind of a budget in mind. I can`t say I stick to it because if I find something I think it`s really great for someone and it exceeds the budget I planned, I go ahead and get it because I want them to have it.
John Ferver:
Whatever I need to get for the holidays, I`ll look online a little bit more to make sure I`m stretching my budget.
Sherry Sherry:
I used to love Black Friday. I would be the one getting up at five in the morning to go buy toys. But in the past few years I haven`t done it because there aren`t a lot of things on those sales that I`m really looking for as gifts.
Susen Pope:
I don`t think price matters. I can give a bit of joy for $12 as easily as I can give something for $100.
John Ferver:
I found my friends love if I make something for them or if we just catch up and have time to hang out and relax. We don`t tend to do that enough during the year and so it`s nice to make that a part of the holidays.
Sherry Sherry:
I`m hoping that there`ll be more time to get together this holiday and spend time together because to me that`s more important than the presence or anything else. Is the presence of the people, not the presence or from the people.
John Yang:
The National Retail Federation forecasts sales in November and December will be as much as three and a half percent higher than last year. That would be the slowest growth since 2018. Dana Telsey is CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, which tracks both consumer and retailer behavior. This year, Barron`s named her one of the 100 most influential women in finance.
Dana, I know you and your team go out every Friday, every Black Friday, and walk the stores. What did you see yesterday and what does it tell you about this year`s shopping season?
Dana Telsey, CEO, Tesley Advisory Group:
So thank you very much for having me. I was in the stores yesterday and what I saw is traffic built as time went on. No longer do we have the 6:00 a.m. starting points with the rush into the stores, but overall as the afternoon comes, it gets busier.
What`s also different this year than last year? More promotions this year than last year. In order to bring the consumer in, the consumer of almost all different income levels are being more choiceful, discerning, selective in their goods and promotions are a way to drive the sale. So I think it`ll be a three to three and a half percent increase this year and I think this Black Friday weekend so far is matching those type of increases.
John Yang:
You say the stores have promotions to get people in, the stores get people spending. Do you expect those promotions to continue as the season goes on and prices to be cut more and more?
Dana Telsey:
I think we will have promotions as the season goes on. Keep in mind we have a shorter holiday season this year than last year. Given that Thanksgiving is later, with five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The deal started earlier. They will continue. But retailer inventories are lean.
So I think the level of promotions, which seems to be now around 30 percent off for black Friday weekend on average, they may step up, but everyone`s going to want to hold those discounts to maybe that 30 or 40 percent off. I don`t see it like years past when it was 60, 70 percent off plus.
John Yang:
The consumers looking for deals, looking for value. Is this because of inflation and high interest rates?
Dana Telsey:
Yes, it is. It is because of inflation. We know that pricing is elevated this year compared to what it had been in years past, partially because of the inflationary headwinds. But also consumers want to spend on experiences that create memories. So the bifurcation between spending on goods and spending on services is there.
And in order to attract consumers to buy goods, you have to have new and what`s new this year, whether it`s the closed toed shoe at Birkenstock, whether it is also the on sneakers or the HOKA running shoe, those are some of the new things in footwear that`s driving appeal.
John Yang:
Could people be shopping for themselves as well as for others right now because they`re worried about the effect of President Elect Trump`s tariffs?
Dana Telsey:
Let`s just say Black Friday weekend is always about shopping for others and shopping for yourself. Because some of those deals that are out there, consumers are purchasing for themselves. Definitely with a lower interest rate environment that is certainly something that consumers will benefit from but with this expectation for tariffs that could be coming.
Overall, that could be a headwind, particularly to apparel prices that should show a double digit increase, which is concerning. But when would that show up? Later rather than sooner. But it`s something that`s being watched very carefully because retailers and brands can`t diversify their sourcing fast enough.
John Yang:
You mentioned that the sales you`re expected about around 3.5 percent. That`s not much more than inflation. What does that tell you about the retail economy and the retail situation?
Dana Telsey:
When you think about the retail economy and the retail situation overall, we have a time period right now where essentials is what`s driving a lot of the gains. We have prices still higher than what it was a few years ago. We have luxury and sales moderating, beauty sales moderating. And you`re looking at innovation and apparel that could drive some increases. Whether it`s the wide leg denim jeans, we`re still having categories like the home, still basically moderate also because the higher interest rates from home is not driving increased sales of new homes out there. That`ll be a wait and see if anything.
What we`ve been saying out there is the expectation that whether it`s collaborations or influencers, marketing is necessary to drive interest. And I think the consumer overall is being very choiceful in what they spend.
John Yang:
Very choiceful in what they spend. Could that mean winners and losers among the retailers?
Dana Telsey:
Of course it does. And when you think about some of the winners, it could be the off pricers who offer value like the TJX, Burlington and Ross Storrs. It could be brands that are showing product that consumers don`t have in their closet already. Whether it`s Birkenstock, whether it`s Ralph Lauren or whether it`s Abercrombie and Fitch. And then there are those where there are concerns.
You take a look at companies like Kohl`s overall, who has been weaker given the increased competition even from some of the off pricers. You have some of the brands where you need to see acceleration, like Guess. They get a lot of their sales from Europe and we`re watching what they do carefully. So overall you always have winners, you always have those that need to show improvement.
And this year luxury doesn`t have the same growth that it had in the past.
John Yang:
Dana Telsey, thank you very much.
Dana Telsey:
Thank you for having me.